Russian forces near the Ukrainian border (now estimated in media reports as having stabilized around a total troop strength of 100,000) remain in position as NATO increases its own readiness in the region (although forward-deployed NATO troops number far less than the Russian forces on the other side). Foreign Policy sees the three Baltic states (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia) and the United Kingdom and Canada as the NATO members most committed to the defense of Ukraine. Ukraine's own forces remain on high alert even as Kyiv downplays the threat of imminent Russian invasion. NATO pledges continued cyber support as the US and other members prepare sanctions against Russia.
In the present phase of the conflict, deniable, grey-zone cyber operations are generally regarded as likely. NATO has reaffirmed what it characterizes as its longstanding commitment to Ukrainian cyber defense. "NATO has been working with Ukraine for years to increase its cyber defences, and will continue to do so at pace," a statement from the Alliance said. The same statement also quoted Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană on the current crisis on NATO's Eastern flank. “The use of hybrid attacks against Ukraine, including cyber-attacks and disinformation," he said, "as well as the massing of advanced weapons on its borders, underlines the key role of advanced technology in modern warfare.”
The US has devoted considerable attention to the sanctions it might bring against Russia should Moscow carry out its threat against Ukraine. Some of those resemble the US measures against Huawei, but writ large, and designed to cover broad stretches of the Russian economy as opposed to one or a handful of companies. The US is also considering, according to Bloomberg, sanctions directed specifically against Russian President Vladimir Putin. A recent example of what such sanctions might look like is afforded by last week's US Treasury Department action against four Ukrainian nationals accused of working as Russian agents of influence against the government in Kyiv.
The CyberWire's continuing coverage of the crisis in Ukraine may be found here.